CONVENTIONAL wisdom has it that the state opposition will romp into power at the 2014 elections.
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The Liberals need only bide their time and the trappings of government will be handed to them on a platter, or so the theory goes.
The whiff around Labor is undeniable.
After well over a decade in power, the electorate appears to have had enough.
According to yesterday's EMRS poll, Labor's primary vote is languishing at 23 per cent, 2 per cent down on its May 2011 figure and 4 per cent behind its most recent high point _ if you can call it that _ of 27 per cent.
So far, so predictable.
According to the script, the Greens, by way of their partnership in power with the sinking ALP, are also supposed to go down with the ship.
It's here where things start to look more than a little concerning for Opposition Leader Will Hodgman.
According to the EMRS poll, while the Liberal primary vote fell by 3 per cent from February, support for the Greens has risen by 5 per cent.
That puts them level with Labor on 23 per cent.
It is an astonishing rise given their role in a clearly unpopular government.
It seems to indicate that voters are shifting from the major parties to the Green and independent camps (the independent vote rose 3 per cent from February).
That's bad news for a Liberal Party waiting to drift into power.
Together, a Labor-Green coalition has 46 per cent of the vote, just three per cent behind the Liberals on 49.
And that's with a whopping 25 per cent of the electorate undecided.
Worse for Mr Hodgman, his personal approval rating has dropped from a high of 52 per cent last August to 43 per cent.
With everything in the political cycle running in his favour, the fact Mr Hodgman has become so much less popular in the past nine months must have a few in the Liberal rank and file asking questions about the state's longest serving opposition leader and the tactics he is employing.
If they're not, they should be.