LAUNCESTON'S future growth will be at the expense of its surrounding regional towns, says social inclusion commissioner David Adams.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
Professor Adams said yesterday that the greater Launceston population was projected to increase from its existing 106,970 to 123,870 by 2036, an increase of about 17,000 people.
"The catchment areas for people accessing Launceston's services such as retail and health is expanding, influenced by reduced transport times and increasing service options on the city fringes," Professor Adams said.
But the population projections for Northern Tasmania outside greater Launceston were "pretty grim," he said.
This was why there needed to be a serious discussion about the place of public education in Northern Tasmanian communities in shaping more sustainable futures for small towns, he said.
Professor Adams was speaking with decisions looming on both the Launceston City Council's retail strategy and a plan for the future of regional schools.
The retail strategy is expected to go back to the council to be ratified soon after a period of public consultation.
Professor Adams said that the school closure debate had raised the broader question of the future for many of the region's smaller centres.
"The loss of critical services such as schools can have a domino effect for communities that are already vulnerable to market and demographic changes," he said.
The picture for Launceston's future was slow but steady growth with the city as the expanding hub of the region attracting the bulk of population growth and jobs.
Improved transport into and through Launceston would accelerate growth, Professor Adams said.
The projected figure for population growth outside greater Launceston was from 36,300 to 36,746 by 2036, he said.
"Given that much of the growth predicted is for older people it makes the future for many schools a challenge," he said.
Three other factors are shaping the gradual population decline in many rural areas:
Traditional industries such as mining, forestry and fishing that have driven previous boom times have gone or been wound back.
Industries that have remained have become increasingly mechanised and grown in scale - big farms and forests mean smaller communities, Professor Adams said.
More efficient transport means that people can move quickly or drive further to work.