Will the Tasmanian election be held in 2014 or in four months?
Gonzo journalism founder Hunter S. Thompson once famously noted that "when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro''.
Tasmanian politics is turning weird or for some, weirder.
The question remains whether this is a signal for the political pros to play their hand.
Next week is likely to be a very weird week.
The planets of political weirdness could align.
Let's look at the political calendar.
This week, Gunns Ltd announced a capital investment that will effectively hand 40 per cent control of the company to Richard Chandler Corporation.
Alan Kelly, a senior adviser to the Richard Chandler Corporation, is quoted as saying: ``The Richard Chandler Corporation proposes to work with Gunns management to catalyse the Bell Bay Pulp Mill.''
Early in the week - probably Tuesday - the Enterprise Marketing and Research Services statewide poll is being released, ahead of schedule. Usually, the results are published towards the end of the month. Work commitments are the explanation?
The mid-year financial update will be released the next day.
To round the week off Premier Lara Giddings intends to address a business breakfast in Hobart, hosted by the TCCI, ostensibly to talk about the mid-year report.
Why is this weird?
Gunns' announcement had the word catalyse in it!
Catalyse: to accelerate, to influence.
No one would choose to put catalyse in a sentence if it wasn't for purpose or intent.
There are many options of less gravity: help, assist, facilitate, support to name a few.
Can we assume that the pulp mill is back in play?
The EMRS poll has been moved forward and if it is bad - status quo or worse - for the Labor government and Premier Lara Giddings it will almost certainly overshadow the rest of the week unless the weird really are turning pro.
The mid-year financial update will be critical for two reasons: how is the government tracking on its savings strategy and is there any evidence that the Labor political leadership stoush at the end of 2011 has seen the Premier forced to backtrack and soften budgetary outcomes going forward?
Did David O'Byrne have the numbers after all and used that to the advantage of his supporters and union backers?
Premier Giddings was put on notice.
Let's assume that the EMRS poll is neutral for Labor and the mid-year report indicates once off gains from asset sales - TOTE and other tax equivalents - that allows for future easing of savings cuts to vital services such as health.
What then will the Premier say to her audience of business leaders who are largely cheer-leaders for her fiscal strategy and by default her public sector reform?
This will remain a fiscal failure - the fundamentals are grim.
It won't be a speech of contrition: ``I got it wrong, Labor spent more than we had.''
This could be a speech built on hope: funding Labor values - working-families, employment and disadvantage.
Perhaps it will be the speech that implies a separation, before a divorce - on the basis of irreconcilable differences - between Labor-Green partners in minority government.
A guerilla war on forestry is imminent.
If pulp mill, financial assistance, catalyse or guarantee appear in a sentence, the Labor political pros will have turned a weird week into a strategy for an early post-budget election.
Dr Tony McCall is a senior lecturer at the School of Government, University of Tasmania.
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